The incoming army chief may have a significant impact on lowering political tensions.

Army Chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa: ISPR

KARACHI: When General Qamar Javed Bajwa's term as Chief of Army Staff ends later this month, Pakistan's nuclear-armed military will have a new leader.

The appointment could have a significant impact on Pakistan's fragile democracy's future and whether or not relations with India, a neighboring country, are allowed to improve. The military is the most powerful institution in a nation that is frequently in the midst of its next crisis.

The army has seized power three times and directly ruled the Islamic republic for more than three decades in the 75 years since Pakistan's independence and formation out of the Partition of India, fighting three wars with India along the way.

The new chief could decide whether Pakistan leans more toward China or the United States and set the tone for how it interacts with the Hindu nationalist government in India and the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Bajwa's legacy

When Bajwa became chief in 2016, he wanted to strike a balance between China and the United States.Bajwa worked to thaw relations with Washington while Islamabad moved closer to Beijing. He worked closely with Washington during the evacuation of Kabul in 2021 when western forces pulled out of Afghanistan.

Bajwa was also very interested in economic issues.He went to Beijing and the Middle East, where he got a lot of attention, and he helped get Pakistan money.Additionally, he pressed Washington to assist in negotiating a deal with the International Monetary Fund.

In order to convince Pakistan's top industrialists to attend a meeting at army headquarters, he even invited them.

Air battles between India and Pakistan occurred during his tenure in 2019, but he avoided escalation when tensions were high, like when an Indian missile accidentally hit Pakistani territory this year.

Bajwa authorized the resumption of a ceasefire agreement with Delhi in the disputed Kashmir region at the beginning of 2021.

How does a chief get chosen?

The prime minister will receive a list of the most senior generals from the departing chief.In an army that had just under a million personnel in 2019 and was the sixth largest in the world, the baton has only been passed to someone outside of the top four most senior officers very rarely.

The term of an army chief is three years, but they frequently get extensions, as Bajwa did.Even though the military has said that Bajwa will retire this time, there has been talk that he might get another extension because of Pakistan's recent political and economic problems.

Lieutenant-Generals Asim Munir, the army's quartermaster general and former spy chief, Sahir Shamshad, the commander of the Rawalpindi Corps, Azhar Abbas, the army's chief of general staff, and Nauman Mahmood, the chief of the National Defence University, are thought to be the front-runners to succeed Bajwa.

Why does it matter worldwide?

On Pakistan's eastern border, the army chief will be crucial in preventing conflict with India, a nuclear-armed rival, and preventing instability and friction with Afghanistan on its western border.

Given Pakistan's strategic location in a volatile neighborhood and its coastline close to major shipping lanes serving the oil-rich Gulf, many world capitals have direct ties with Pakistan's military.

Due to insurgencies in the ethnic Pashtun and Baloch regions, internal security has been a near-constant issue.

Foreigners' concerns about Pakistan's nuclear weapons' command and control and security have been dismissed despite all the risks.

What is the significance of this appointment domestically?

It has been alleged for a long time that the military manipulates the democratic process in order to maintain its dominance.None of the 30 prime ministers in Pakistan who were elected completed their five-year terms.

The army has stated that it will no longer interfere, after recently admitting to its previous involvement in politics.Pakistan's democratic development may depend on whether the new chief keeps that promise.

Imran Khan has led nationwide protests in an effort to force Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif into early elections, which is causing Pakistan to experience yet another period of political uncertainty.

As Pakistan tries to recover from historic floods and survive an economic crisis, the new army chief could help to cool the political climate.